Also, I've looked over the records from Adur and I think we could cut costs on muggle feed if we're judicious. Obviously, they still need to be able to work.
There's six camps in Kent. Ashford, Chipstead, Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Swale, and Tunbridge Wells. We're keeping the food budget at Wells the same, for comparison. We're cutting the other five in various amounts. I sent you the specifics -- take the info over to the camp administrators and let them know the plan.
I looked over the figures. The benchmarks you have set are certainly ambitious. I wonder whether there are perhaps a few other factors which have not been included in your calculations?
As I understand it from recent demographic and work studies (see Resnick and Spilling -- I'll put the report on your desk), the relationship between food cut (and thus lowered budget) is not exactly 1:1 when it comes to diminished work capacity. Cutting the food budget by 5% will not cut output by 5%. More like 7%. The amplifying effect skews to an ever greater slope as cuts go deeper. Cut food by 10% and output goes down 13%. Cut by 15% and output drops 19%, etc.
Also, cutting over 20% definitely takes a toll on the immune system. Your costs will rise as you will be treating more disease, perhaps even deaths among the young and the old. Don't forget that disease can spread from one camp to others, as happened in the Black's epidemic--or even to the citizen (wizarding) population.
There's also an increased management risk. Hungry people become angry. That may mean more sabotage, perhaps even more camp breakouts. It will mean increased overtime for camp staff, which will in turn raise costs.
Perhaps decreasing the amount of food could be mitigated somewhat if you're increasing the quality. If you wish to serve less turnips and potatoes, then increase fruit, vegetables and meat. That might decrease both anger and diminished work capacity. A boost to the protein in the diets would certainly be beneficial in getting more work out of the labour force.
Of course, adding in a small amount of expensive food while you're cutting cheap plentiful food may mean the whole thing's a wash, budgetwise.
You might also consider that waiting to launch this experiment might be more successful, simply because winter is coming. If you cut calories now, more people will be expend more energy keeping themselves warm, which will diminish their ability to work. Especially where calories are cut the must, they very well might succumb to hypothermia, frostbite, etc. That danger could be avoided if you simply wait until next spring to cut the animal feed.
I'm familiar with Resnick and Spilling. Their research was done in the middle of Black's epidemic; naturally muggles were dropping like flies.
There's a distinct lack of controlled research, so we're going to create some. Surely you learned the concept of the 'experimental control' in your NEWT Potions class.
Yes, I do understand the concept of controlled research, sir. Resnick and Spilling do apply it. Yes, the research took place during Black's epidemic, but not among subjects who were ill. Rather, the researchers studied subjects who were in pockets of the Protectorate that the epidemic did not reach, but whose rations were cut simply because of the turmoil in budgets due to the massive losses in animal die off and as well as harvest die-off due to a lack of a labour force to tend crops and then bring the harvest in.
So you wish me to go ahead, I take it, and we can also write it up as an interesting cross-check to Reznick and Spilling's work. Very well, I will set up appointments with the camp admins through the remainder of the week.
I do think we should perhaps consider before we begin--at what point the experiment should be suspended, if the results are not what we would wish, i.e., if the percentage of deaths among the animals rises, at what level is the attrition no longer acceptable?
Remember that the workforce is not quite fully restored since Black's epidemic, which suggests that workforce overseers were not be pleased if the number of animals available to fill work quotas drops too low.
I'll be wanting reports from each of them at one month, two months, and three months. I'll re-assess at three months. Adult muggles can live entirely without food for over a month, I've read case studies. Admittedly you won't get much work out of them under such circumstances. But three months of reduced rations is only going to cull the weakest.
It would help, sir, when I talk to the camp admins if I clearly understand the purpose you have in mind in launching these experiments so that I can properly convey that purpose to them. Also, knowing exactly what you are trying to determine helps us ascertain what data to record.
Is it purely budgetary, because you wish to save as much money as possible? Are you only focusing on costs, and therefore willing to absolutely ignore the offsetting profit of work output? That might not be quite as useful a picture, for future budgetary calculations.
Is your interest more a matter of scientific curiosity, i.e., how long animals can live without food? I would have thought there were plenty of scientific studies already published which would provide such information to your satisfaction. Are there behavioural changes that you wish to have observed, or is your only interest in the speed of rising illness? Or even the death rate? (Again, we may get more resistance from those with work quotas to fill, if you simply wish to test how long it takes to starve animals to death).
Would appreciate any guidance you can give. Thank you.
I think my instructions were entirely clear -- both in terms of the food rations and in terms of data gathering. I have no desire to bias the camp admins in giving me the information they think I want.
And you can drop the melodrama. I'm not 'starving animals to death,' you bloody idiot. None of these camps is being cut back anywhere near as much as the muggles in Adur, most of which are still on their feet.
I'll have a report for you at the end of the week regarding my meetings with the administrators, and then the one month, two months and three months reports you request.
What's the point of doing this, you bloody prick? Power? The pleasure of causing misery? Killing off the weak? The thrill of saving money by killing children?
If I knew, I'd have a better chance of mitigating the effects while still not screwing up your bloody data.
And fuck you with your crack about melodrama. People are going to die because of this.
Ah. As it happens, I do know what that's about as it touches directly upon my family, too.
My brothers, Fred and George Weasley, have been deep in plans to start their own business for the past three years. They have been discussing their ideas with Mr Malfoy's goddaughter, Miss Pansy Parkinson, and she was impressed enough that she decided she wanted to invest with the company, enough to become a partner. She withdrew some monies from her allowance (NOT touching the principal, however) but was not exactly forthcoming with her trustee, Mr Baddock, concerning her planned use for the money.
Mr Malfoy first learned of the planned new business at a Magical Commerce meeting, when Fred and George's business licence was considered. He was outraged, both because he hadn't heard of this in the first place from Miss Parkinson or another brother of mine, Percy (his clerk), and because Mr Baddock had not stopped her from applying funds to join the business venture. He demanded that she immediately withdraw her funds again from the business and urged Mr Baddock to force her to do so.
Miss Parkinson refused to comply, insisting that the business has an excellent chance of success, although she offered Mr Malfoy the opportunity to look over the budget plan and budget. Then Mr Malfoy demanded that Mr Baddock force the issue as Miss Parkinson's trustee. He, too has refused to go along with Mr Malfoy's wishes, reasoning that Miss Parkinson has the right to make mistakes (if indeed this is a mistake) with her own money. As I understand, Mr Malfoy subsequently has informed Mr Baddock that their friendship is over.
Malfoy now seems to be investigating what pressure he can bring to bear on my brothers. And on my mother, who has set up a rent-to-own arrangement on the building where the business is situated. Fred and George reported that Mr Virgil Crispin (Mr Malfoy's protegee) stopped by the building last Friday. I won't say exactly that threats were made. Mr Crispin is rather more adroit than that. Let's just say that the idea of possible future unpleasantness was suggested.
Um, my mum and three of my brothers, yeah. As I said, he was also considerably hacked off at Percy, his clerk, for failing to warn him of Fred and George's licence application before that meeting. (Even though Percy's rather on Mr Malfoy's side about the whole thing).
I seem to have escaped his notice thus far. As well as my younger siblings still at school.
Not so infuriated he's sacked his clerk, or I'd definitely have heard about that.
If he does take it into his head to sack your brother, you might get him to a Healer for a once-over. I've heard being sacked by Lucius Malfoy can be hazardous to a man's health.
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2013-09-30 03:28 pm (UTC)There's six camps in Kent. Ashford, Chipstead, Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Swale, and Tunbridge Wells. We're keeping the food budget at Wells the same, for comparison. We're cutting the other five in various amounts. I sent you the specifics -- take the info over to the camp administrators and let them know the plan.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 12:30 am (UTC)As I understand it from recent demographic and work studies (see Resnick and Spilling -- I'll put the report on your desk), the relationship between food cut (and thus lowered budget) is not exactly 1:1 when it comes to diminished work capacity. Cutting the food budget by 5% will not cut output by 5%. More like 7%. The amplifying effect skews to an ever greater slope as cuts go deeper. Cut food by 10% and output goes down 13%. Cut by 15% and output drops 19%, etc.
Also, cutting over 20% definitely takes a toll on the immune system. Your costs will rise as you will be treating more disease, perhaps even deaths among the young and the old. Don't forget that disease can spread from one camp to others, as happened in the Black's epidemic--or even to the citizen (wizarding) population.
There's also an increased management risk. Hungry people become angry. That may mean more sabotage, perhaps even more camp breakouts. It will mean increased overtime for camp staff, which will in turn raise costs.
Perhaps decreasing the amount of food could be mitigated somewhat if you're increasing the quality. If you wish to serve less turnips and potatoes, then increase fruit, vegetables and meat. That might decrease both anger and diminished work capacity. A boost to the protein in the diets would certainly be beneficial in getting more work out of the labour force.
Of course, adding in a small amount of expensive food while you're cutting cheap plentiful food may mean the whole thing's a wash, budgetwise.
You might also consider that waiting to launch this experiment might be more successful, simply because winter is coming. If you cut calories now, more people will be expend more energy keeping themselves warm, which will diminish their ability to work. Especially where calories are cut the must, they very well might succumb to hypothermia, frostbite, etc. That danger could be avoided if you simply wait until next spring to cut the animal feed.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:22 am (UTC)There's a distinct lack of controlled research, so we're going to create some. Surely you learned the concept of the 'experimental control' in your NEWT Potions class.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:28 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:32 am (UTC)If we find the same information, that's still good to know.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:39 am (UTC)I do think we should perhaps consider before we begin--at what point the experiment should be suspended, if the results are not what we would wish, i.e., if the percentage of deaths among the animals rises, at what level is the attrition no longer acceptable?
Remember that the workforce is not quite fully restored since Black's epidemic, which suggests that workforce overseers were not be pleased if the number of animals available to fill work quotas drops too low.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:56 am (UTC)Is it purely budgetary, because you wish to save as much money as possible? Are you only focusing on costs, and therefore willing to absolutely ignore the offsetting profit of work output? That might not be quite as useful a picture, for future budgetary calculations.
Is your interest more a matter of scientific curiosity, i.e., how long animals can live without food? I would have thought there were plenty of scientific studies already published which would provide such information to your satisfaction. Are there behavioural changes that you wish to have observed, or is your only interest in the speed of rising illness? Or even the death rate? (Again, we may get more resistance from those with work quotas to fill, if you simply wish to test how long it takes to starve animals to death).
Would appreciate any guidance you can give. Thank you.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 02:00 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 02:02 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 02:07 am (UTC)Order Only
Date: 2013-10-01 02:18 am (UTC)If I knew, I'd have a better chance of mitigating the effects while still not screwing up your bloody data.
And fuck you with your crack about melodrama. People are going to die because of this.
no subject
Date: 2013-09-30 03:29 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:43 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-09-30 06:14 pm (UTC)My brothers, Fred and George Weasley, have been deep in plans to start their own business for the past three years. They have been discussing their ideas with Mr Malfoy's goddaughter, Miss Pansy Parkinson, and she was impressed enough that she decided she wanted to invest with the company, enough to become a partner. She withdrew some monies from her allowance (NOT touching the principal, however) but was not exactly forthcoming with her trustee, Mr Baddock, concerning her planned use for the money.
Mr Malfoy first learned of the planned new business at a Magical Commerce meeting, when Fred and George's business licence was considered. He was outraged, both because he hadn't heard of this in the first place from Miss Parkinson or another brother of mine, Percy (his clerk), and because Mr Baddock had not stopped her from applying funds to join the business venture. He demanded that she immediately withdraw her funds again from the business and urged Mr Baddock to force her to do so.
Miss Parkinson refused to comply, insisting that the business has an excellent chance of success, although she offered Mr Malfoy the opportunity to look over the budget plan and budget. Then Mr Malfoy demanded that Mr Baddock force the issue as Miss Parkinson's trustee. He, too has refused to go along with Mr Malfoy's wishes, reasoning that Miss Parkinson has the right to make mistakes (if indeed this is a mistake) with her own money. As I understand, Mr Malfoy subsequently has informed Mr Baddock that their friendship is over.
Malfoy now seems to be investigating what pressure he can bring to bear on my brothers. And on my mother, who has set up a rent-to-own arrangement on the building where the business is situated. Fred and George reported that Mr Virgil Crispin (Mr Malfoy's protegee) stopped by the building last Friday. I won't say exactly that threats were made. Mr Crispin is rather more adroit than that. Let's just say that the idea of possible future unpleasantness was suggested.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:23 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:32 am (UTC)I seem to have escaped his notice thus far. As well as my younger siblings still at school.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:34 am (UTC)If he does take it into his head to sack your brother, you might get him to a Healer for a once-over. I've heard being sacked by Lucius Malfoy can be hazardous to a man's health.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:42 am (UTC)But I doubt that will happen, considering how hard Percy is arguing to convince my brothers and Mum to give the whole thing up.
no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2013-10-01 01:59 am (UTC)Weasley stubboMiss Parkinson seems quite committed to the venture, too.